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2024 Market Outlook

By | Financial Planning

Falling interest rates

Much of the rally over the last two months of 2023 was predicated on market expectations that interest rate cuts will begin earlier than expected in 2024. Some economists have suggested the first cut by the Federal Reserve could come as early as March; however, this could prove to be a little optimistic, and we are mindful that markets could be prone to disappointment if the anticipated cuts are delayed. The last Federal Reserve meeting of 2023 indicated that there may be three 0.25% base rate cuts in the US during 2024, and further cuts to follow in 2025 as the global economy slows.

We expect a similar story of rate cuts in the UK. The Bank of England, who were slow to begin raising interest rates as inflationary pressure began to build towards the end of 2021, may well have hiked base rates above what is necessary to cool inflation, and given our expectations for growth and outlook for the UK economy, we anticipate the Bank of England will be cutting rates, potentially aggressively, in the second half of 2024.

The end of the hiking cycle will provide some respite for mortgage borrowers, although the housing market is likely to remain under pressure. Falling interest rates will also change the outlook for cash savings, which have been attractive compared to other assets over the last year. We have already seen longer term fixed savings rates begin to taper, and this trend should continue during 2024.

Slower Growth

We expect global growth to slow during 2024. Growth was stronger than anticipated in 2023, despite concerns over the financial strength of US banks in the Spring and ongoing monetary tightening by central banks. As inflation continues to fall away over the first half of the year, the restrictive policies are likely to lead to more muted growth in the US and global economy. Whilst the US may manage to avoid a recession in 2024, the same fate is less likely for the UK, where growth has been negligible for much of the last 12 months and indeed, October 2023 saw the UK economy contract by 0.3%.

Geopolitical and political risks remain

Investors need to be alert to a number of potential geopolitical risks in 2024. The conflict between Israel and Gaza could spill over into a broader Middle Eastern conflict, which would have an unwelcome effect on Oil prices. Investors would be wise not to ignore the ongoing war in Ukraine, although much of the economic impact of the conflict was felt last year.  Any increase in tension between China and the US over Taiwan would be viewed negatively by risk assets, and lead to a flight to safety.

2024 will be a big year for elections, with a UK General Election forecast to be any time between May and December, and the US Presidential election in November. The outcome of the UK elections are likely to have a lower impact on market sentiment, and a clean outcome from the US election in November would also be well received by markets. A constitutional crisis, similar to that seen four years ago after the disputed Biden-Trump election of 2020, would not be good news and may see volatility spike sharply higher.

Asset class outlook

After a very strong final few weeks of 2023, we would not be surprised to see markets take a pause for breath in the first quarter of this year. A broad based rally in both Equities and Bonds since November has undoubtedly priced in some of the potential that monetary loosening could bring in 2024. It also means that some vulnerability now exists should central banks not deliver the expected rate cuts, and markets will remain keenly focused on key economic data as the year progresses.

In the battle of growth versus value, stocks that display strong growth potential – particularly large cap US technology stocks – clearly dominated 2023. This trend may continue in the short term, but this leaves interesting opportunities in more value orientated stocks, who have been largely ignored for much of the last 12 months.

Careful geographic allocation may well prove pivotal in the coming year, as economic performance diverges. We remain positive on the prospects for US Equities, and also favour Japan and the wider Asia-Pacific region. UK and European markets appear to offer relatively good value, but given that we anticipate weaker growth from this region over the coming year, we would prefer to keep allocations relatively light.

After a dismal year in 2022, Bond markets produced a better performance last year and we expect this to continue through 2024. Markets may, however, have moved a little ahead of themselves given the strong rally seen over the last few weeks and there may well be some consolidation during the early stages of the year. Yields look attractive, although we prefer investment grade to high yield debt, given that growth will slow and the higher cost of debt servicing and tight lending conditions could see default rates rise.

Commercial Property produced very disappointing returns in 2023, and although the landscape should improve over time, continued low occupancy of office space and a tough retail environment are factors that keep us away from the property sector for the time being. Other alternative investments, such as infrastructure, may see improved conditions during this year as the high interest rate headwinds subside.

Time to review your portfolio strategy

As we enter a new year, we feel this is an ideal time to review existing portfolios to ensure that they remain appropriately invested for the year ahead. Uncertainty continues, and therefore holding a diversified portfolio will remain as important as ever as we navigate 2024. Speak to one of our experienced advisers to discuss your existing portfolio strategy.

Reflections on 2023

By | Financial Planning

As 2023 draws to a close, we can reflect on a year when relative calm returned to investment markets after an extended period of market turbulence due to the pandemic, war in Ukraine and global inflationary spike. The level of volatility – that is to say the amount markets move up and down over time – has fallen as the year progressed and has recently touched record low levels not seen since 2020.

There have, however, been moments when market volatility has spiked. The failure of Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank in March briefly threatened another banking crisis, although regulators stepped in and took appropriate action to avoid contagion spreading. The start of hostilities between Gaza and Israel also temporarily put markets on the back foot. Market direction has, however, largely been dictated by expectations that central banks would look to change tack, and begin to cut rates after a rapid series of hikes. Economic data – particularly in the US – has been stronger than expected throughout the year, which has led to the Federal Reserve and others raising rates further than many market participants had expected.

Recent comments by central bankers, particularly in the US, have suggested that the long awaited “pivot” is finally here. Investors have been eagerly anticipating the point at which central banks call time on the hiking cycle which has dominated sentiment since early 2022. This has led to a strong return over recent weeks as markets end the year in an optimistic mood, with the expectation that rates will be cut next year.

Technology dominates returns

The so-called “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks have been responsible for a good proportion of the gains achieved by markets during 2023. The performance of Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia and Tesla have not only driven US market returns, but also global markets, due to their combined market capitalisation. Our portfolio strategies have continued to hold good exposure to these tech giants, despite challenging valuations in one or two cases.

Inflation back under control

Inflation, which was the major cause of the market gyrations last year, appears to be back under control. As we entered 2023, inflation stood at 10.5% in the UK and 6.5% in the US. Partly due to actions taken by central banks, inflation has more than halved in both the US and UK. Whilst the current rates of inflation continue to run at elevated levels when compared to the target rate of 2%, the trend is firmly lower, and we feel that central bankers run the risk of inflation undershooting medium term targets if they maintain restrictive monetary policies for too long.

Bonds fight back

2022 will be recorded as being one of the worst performing years for fixed interest investors since records began. The rapid series of rate hikes and inflationary spike led to yields rising substantially over the course of the year. Whilst the early stages of this year saw Bonds move sideways, recent performance has been more encouraging, as markets look to a change in direction from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank in 2024.

London loses its’ lustre

The London stock exchange appears to be losing its’ appeal for companies who wish to list on public exchanges. Chip designer ARM holdings made the decision to list on the New York Stock Exchange earlier this year and other significant moves overseas have included Irish building materials company CRH. In our opinion, this only reinforces the importance of taking a global approach to investment and to avoid investment strategies that are too concentrated in domestic Equity funds.

Geopolitical tensions

Geopolitical events have continued to have an influence on markets over the course of the year. The conflict in Israel and Gaza, which commenced in October has, to date, had a limited impact on market sentiment. Naturally, any escalation in the conflict could have a significant impact on oil prices, which in turn would increase volatility in global markets.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, although it is becoming more evident that the economic damage was caused last year, and investment markets have paid less attention to events in central Europe over the course of the year. Another possible area of concern is the potential for China to invade Taiwan. This threat should not be ignored, and again, this would have a significant impact on market sentiment in the event of increased tensions between China and the US.

Whilst external events have had less of an impact this year than say in 2020 or 2022, investors always need to be mindful that events beyond the control of markets can influence sentiment and momentum. For this reason, we recommend that investment strategies are reviewed regularly so that they remain appropriately invested in response to global events.

What is in store for 2024?

Unless we see a significant turnaround over the remaining trading days this year, global markets will end the year higher and investors will be able to reflect on a more representative market performance, after a difficult period of volatility in recent years. Compared to the tentative mood twelve months ago, markets are showing a degree of confidence that the worst may be behind us.

We will take a look at our thoughts for the year ahead in the first edition of Wealth Matters in 2024. We take this opportunity of wishing all of our readers a pleasant Christmas break and good health and happiness in 2024.

12 quick ways to review your financial plans this Christmas

By | Financial Planning

The run up to the festive period is traditionally a busy time for many; however you may find time over the Christmas holiday period to sit down and review your financial position.

Data from H M Revenue and Customs suggests that this is precisely how some individuals use their down time over the Christmas period. Last Christmas saw 22,060 individuals file their Self Assessment Tax Returns between Christmas Eve and Boxing Day last year, with 3,275 filed on Christmas Day itself.

With the festive season looming, we thought it would be a good opportunity to take a brief look at 12 ways you can bolster your financial plans over the Christmas period and into the New Year.

Think about this year’s Individual Savings Account (ISA) allowance

In the current Tax Year, each UK resident is entitled to save £20,000 into an ISA, where those savings or investments are exempt from tax on interest and capital growth. The increase in cash interest rates over the last year could lead to many more individuals paying tax on interest from savings held outside of an ISA. Using the ISA allowance will shelter cash from both Income Tax and Capital Gains Tax.

Consider your protection policies

It is a sad fact that many people have insufficient financial protection in place to safeguard their loved ones. Research undertaken by Direct Line Insurance in 2022 found that only 35% of those questioned hold life assurance. Separate research from Charles Stanley suggested only 7% of individuals have either a Critical Illness or Income Protection policy in place.

The end of the year can be a good time to take stock and ask yourself some honest questions about the robustness of your financial plan. Would your spouse and children cope financially if you suddenly died or became seriously ill and could no longer earn? Are your current protection policies still up-to-date and appropriate for your needs?

Review your CGT allowance

The Capital Gains Tax (CGT) allowance has already more than halved this Tax Year and is expected to halve again from 6th April 2024. Making best use of the allowance is now more important than ever, and it would be sensible to undertake a review of an existing investment portfolio to consider whether any action is needed.

Make use of annual gift exemptions

You are allowed to gift up to £3,000 in each Tax Year, without considering the Inheritance Tax (IHT) implications. There are additional exemptions that may be available, depending on your circumstances. If you are looking to reduce the potential impact of IHT on your Estate, making regular gifts can be a useful way of mitigating an IHT liability, in conjunction with other tax planning strategies.

Review your pensions

Assuming you are not affected by rules such as the Money Purchase Annual Allowance (MPAA) or Tapered Annual Allowance, you can contribute up to £60,000 into your pension (or up to 100% of your salary – whichever is lower) in the current Tax Year. It may also be possible to carry forward unused allowances from previous tax years.

Pension contributions can be a great way to save towards your retirement in a tax-efficient manner, and as pensions are usually exempt from IHT,  a pension can also shelter funds for loved ones on death outside of your Estate.

Take stock of your mortgage

For many people, their mortgage is their biggest liability and monthly outgoing. The hike in interest rates over the last year has led to increased payments for those on a Standard Variable Rate mortgage. For those currently on a fixed rate deal, it would be sensible to start to consider your position when the current deal expires.

Consider joint tax allowances

If you are married or in a civil partnership, then it is possible to transfer assets to your partner to make use of their allowances if available, as well as your own, or to be taxed at lower rates, if applicable. For instance, CGT can be avoided or reduced by using both allowances to share a capital gain.

Check emergency funds

Whilst everyone has a different view about the balance that would ideally be kept in a current account, we feel it is sensible to keep at least three to six months of outgoings accessible to cover any emergencies that could arise. Take time over Christmas to consider the level of cash you are holding to see if you feel comfortable. If the balances you hold are higher than you need, could you move some of the surplus cash to another home where it could be more productive?

Review your credit rating

Checking your credit score at various points throughout the year can be a good idea, as it can affect important areas of your life such as mortgage applications. There are a number of useful online resources that allow you to check your credit score.

Make sure you have completed an Expression of Wish

If you have a workplace or private pension, completing an Expression of Wish form with your provider will let them know who you’d like your pensions savings to go to if you die. It is worthwhile reviewing the nomination regularly to make sure that it continues to reflect your wishes.

Check your State Pension forecast

By using the Government Gateway service you can receive a State Pension forecast, which will indicate your likely State Pension and the date at which it is payable. It will enable you to identify any gaps in your National Insurance record, and check whether any action is needed.

Speak to one of our advisers

Make it a New Year resolution to undertake a comprehensive review of your financial circumstances. Speaking to an independent financial planner can help identify areas that you may have missed, and undertake a comprehensive and holistic review of your current position and whether you are on target to meet your needs and objectives. As a Chartered Firm, our advisers are highly experienced and can take an impartial review of your finances. Speak to one of our advisers to arrange a review.

Reviewing trust investments

By | Trusts

We come across many instances where trustees of an existing trust have carefully considered an appropriate investment strategy when the trust commences, giving due consideration to the terms of the trust, and the requirements of the Trustee Act. So far, so good; however, we equally come across trusts where funds have remained in the same investment strategy for many years, without any detailed scrutiny of the investment process or investment performance.

Investment management is an evolving process. Looking back over decades, the composition of a modern investment portfolio is very different to a portfolio that would have been seen as being appropriate years ago. In recent years, investment trends have increased the focus on passive investment funds, which offer a low-cost way of accessing a particular market index. Active fund managers now pay greater attention to environmental, social and corporate governance factors when constructing portfolios. These, and other factors, can influence portfolio performance, and with an increased focus on value for money, the costs of investment funds and fund management.

Reviewing investments

Keeping the provisions of the Trustee Act in mind, trustees should seek professional advice when carrying out a review of trust investments, unless they feel competent to carry out the review themselves. Our view is that reviews should be carried out at least once a year, and possibly more frequently, depending on the trust situation. The review should, of course, consider the portfolio performance, and adopting an appropriate benchmark can help trustees measure the performance of the portfolio against wider markets.

When investments are managed on an advisory basis, trustees should seek advice as to whether the current portfolio remains suitable given the prevailing and expected market conditions, and if any of the investments should be switched. If the portfolio is managed under discretion, it would be good practice to carefully analyse the decisions reached by the discretionary manager over the review period, and to ensure that the portfolio investments remain consistent with the original investment brief agreed at the outset.

The importance of diversification

Over recent years, our experienced advisers at FAS have reviewed the trust investment strategies of a large number of trusts, which are managed by some of the biggest providers of discretionary managed services to professional and lay trustees. We have noted that many of these solutions tend to employ strategies that are focused on UK equities, and carry an underweight exposure to global equities, which may introduce additional risk, given the dominance of overseas Equities. To demonstrate, 70% of the MSCI World Index (which covers the largest 1511 global quoted companies) is weighted towards US equities, with just over 4% allocated to the UK. Whilst carrying such a small allocation to the UK is, in our opinion, a little extreme, it does underline the importance of global diversification in modern portfolio construction.

We have also noted that some discretionary managed strategies tend to offer unattractive income yields, which may not be appropriate where trustees are not only seeking capital growth, but need to produce a strong level of natural income which is paid to a life tenant. As the circumstances of a trust can differ widely depending on the position of beneficiaries, the time horizon and objectives, trust investment strategies need to be able to adapt to meet the precise requirements of the trust.

Review the trust and tax position

Other than considering the investment strategy, trustees need to regularly consider whether there is any change to a beneficiary’s requirements. For example, are minor beneficiaries close to reaching the age when they receive capital from the trust, and if so, should the trustees consider reducing investment risk. Or perhaps a life tenant’s circumstances have changed, which may mean a switch of portfolio strategy is needed.

Tax rules are also subject to frequent change, and trustees need to keep abreast of how any changes could affect their decisions. A good example of this is the reduction in the Capital Gains Tax allowance, which has more than halved in this Tax Year and will halve again from 6th April 2024. This will undoubtedly lead to more trusts being liable to Capital Gains Tax on a regular basis. Relevant Property Trusts are subject to a punitive tax regime, and by careful review of the various investment wrappers that are available, it may be possible to reduce the burden of tax on the trust. One such example is the use of an investment bond as a way of avoiding Capital Gains Tax considerations.

FAS Trustee Service

As you would expect, we regularly undertake detailed analysis of our portfolio performance and as part of this review, we consider the performance of some of the more common managed portfolio services offered by the largest providers of trust investment management services, and compare these to the performance of our CDI Discretionary Managed portfolios. We carefully monitor not only the raw performance data, but also other factors such as volatility and risk, which are important factors that trustees need to consider, together with fund charges and the management fee structure.

This regular review allows us to make comparisons of our performance against our peer group, and our analysis shows the performance of our CDI portfolios has been favourable when compared to some of the more popular discretionary managers who provide services to trustees. We have a well-defined investment process, which makes best use of our independent status. This allows us to select funds and solutions from the widest range of UK fund managers, allowing us to select the most appropriate investments without restriction.

If you are a trustee, it may be a good time to consider how your investment reviews are carried out. Speak to one of our experienced advisers, who would be pleased to carry out an independent and impartial review of the existing trust investments.

Our view on the Autumn Statement

By | Budget

National Insurance

The headline announcement in the Autumn Statement was the reduction in the main rate of Class 1 National Insurance Contributions (NICs) paid by an employee. Whilst speculation had mounted prior to the Statement that the cut to NICs would be 1%, Jeremy Hunt extended the cut to 2%, reducing the main rate (i.e. the rate payable on earnings between £12,570 to £50,270) from 12% to 10%. This will take effect from 6th January 2024 and provide a maximum saving of £754 per annum.

From the perspective of pension contributions, many employers now offer Salary Sacrifice arrangements, which provide NICs savings for both employers and employees. The reduction in the main rate of Class 1 NICs does slightly reduce the benefit achieved from a Salary Sacrifice arrangement; however, such an arrangement remains a tax-efficient way to structure regular pension contributions.

For the self-employed, Class 2 contributions have been abolished for those with profits above £6,725 a year. The main rate of Class 4 contributions has been reduced from 9% to 8% on profits between £12,570 and £50,270. Employer rates of NICs remain unchanged at 13.8%.

Extended support for VCT and EIS

The Statement confirmed continued support for Venture Capital Trust (VCT) and Enterprise Investment Schemes (EIS) until 2035, which is welcome news. VCT and EIS were previously subject to a “sunset clause” which would have ended tax relief on investment in new VCT and EIS shares in 2025. The announcement provides clarity to the sector and continues to underline the Government’s intention to support small and growing businesses with funding through tax efficient investments.

Pension rules clarified

Following the announcement in the Spring Budget 2023 that the Lifetime Allowance for pension savings is to be abolished, the Treasury and HMRC have provided further guidance on how the new regime will operate from 2024/25. The most important clarification was in respect of the tax treatment of funds in a Defined Contribution pension, where the member dies before the age of 75. Subject to confirmation in the Finance Act, it appears that annuity and drawdown income payable to nominated beneficiaries will remain tax-free beyond 6th April 2024.

IHT – no change…yet

Despite significant press speculation in the run up to the Autumn Statement, no announcements were made to alter the current Inheritance Tax (IHT) rules. Treasury receipts from IHT continue to grow year on year, and reducing or abolishing IHT would leave a gap in the public finances that would need to be filled elsewhere. It therefore remains the case that careful planning is needed to consider whether any mitigation to reduce or eliminate exposure to IHT is required.

Given that there is at least one more Budget before the next general election, we would not entirely rule out changes to IHT next year; however, it is likely that families will still need to consider and plan ahead to ensure that intergenerational wealth is cascaded in a tax-efficient manner.

ISA changes

Whilst some of the more radical changes that the Government could have made to Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs) have been left out of the Autumn Statement, some useful adjustments have been made to the ISA rules from April 2024. From the next tax year, investors and savers will be able to open more than one ISA of each type in the same tax year. Under current legislation you can only open one ISA of each type (i.e. one Stocks and Shares ISA and one Cash ISA) in a tax year, and the new rules introduce interesting opportunities to split Stocks and Shares ISAs across different providers, or save into both a fixed rate and a variable rate Cash ISA with different deposit takers. It will also be possible to arrange partial ISA transfers from contributions made in the current tax year.

The total ISA allowance remains at £20,000 and this is the hard cap on contributions across all different ISA types in a single tax year. This is slightly disappointing, given the fact that the ISA allowance has remained at £20,000 since the 2017/18 tax year, and inflation has eroded the real value of the ISA allowance over time. Junior ISAs will continue to have a £9,000 limit per tax year.

State Pension

The “triple lock” on State Pensions remains in place and therefore State Pensions will increase by 8.5% from next April, as this was the published rate of average earnings growth in September 2023. As a result, the full New State Pension will increase to £221.20 a week from April, or £11,541.90 per annum.

Those in receipt of State Pension will need to consider the effect of fiscal drag on other income they receive such as personal pension income, or savings or dividend income above the Personal Savings and Dividend Allowances. As the bands for Income Tax are frozen until 2028, the increase in State Pension may well push more income into the basic rate, and potentially higher rate, tax bands. It would, therefore, be sensible to consider using tax allowances where possible to shelter investment and savings income.

Planning Opportunities

The Autumn Statement provided clarification on the pension rules that will apply from 6th April 2024, and also ended some of the uncertainty around the long term future of VCT and EIS investments. The measures announced may also present some useful opportunities in the way ISAs are structured from the next tax year; however, with tax bands still frozen, it would be sensible to review the tax-efficiency of existing investment portfolios. Speak to one of our advisers to discuss your financial planning requirements in light of the Autumn Statement.

Trust investment decisions

By | Trusts

Whether a trust is created through a will, or established through a lifetime gift, the trustees will need to take a number of important decisions when a trust commences. One of the key decisions is how the trust funds are to be invested. By way of reminder, the Trustee Act obliges trustees to seek advice at this stage, unless the trustees feel advice is not necessary (due to the value of the trust fund) or if the trustees feel they have the necessary expertise to reach the decisions themselves.

Deciding on a trust investment strategy

The trustees need to have the interests of the beneficiaries at the heart of each and every decision reached. This extends to the initial assessment of the terms of the trust, where trustees need to understand the purpose of the trust, which will help define the investment objectives. For example, trustees will need to consider whether the trust needs to provide an income to a beneficiary, or if the target is to achieve capital growth, and how long the trust is likely to be in place for.

In addition, any specific terms included within the trust deed need to be considered together with any investment limitations. A good example of such a limitation would be where a will trust leaves funds for a beneficiary upon trust, until they attain the age of 18. If the beneficiary was aged 17 at the time the trust was created, the trustees are likely to reach a different conclusion as to the most appropriate investment approach than if the beneficiary was aged just 2 at the creation of the trust, as the time horizon for investment is very different.

One of the key principles of the Trustee Act is to ensure that the investment strategy is suitable for the purposes of the trust in question. This places the onus on trustees to ensure that the level of risk adopted is sensible, and that the investments provide adequate diversification across a range of different assets.

Another important aspect that is sometimes overlooked is the need to consider the tax treatment of the investments held within the trust. Trusts generally suffer a punitive rate of Income Tax and Capital Gains Tax, and setting up an investment portfolio in a tax-efficient manner can make a substantial difference to the overall net returns received by the beneficiaries.

Reviewing trust investments

Once an investment strategy has been established, there is a statutory requirement for trustees to review the trust investments. Trustees cannot simply establish an investment portfolio for the trust and then neglect to carry out regular reviews, as this could well be seen as dereliction of duty. There are many reasons why investments need to be reviewed regularly; investment performance can vary over time, and the trustees need to make sure that the investments held by the trust perform well compared to other investments of similar risk.

Furthermore, investment market conditions change regularly, and as the last three years has demonstrated, market sentiment can swing from positive to negative quickly in response to global events. As market and economic conditions change, the trust investment strategy will need to adapt to the prevailing conditions, and arranging a regular review can help trustees make decisions to change the investment strategy if necessary.

In addition to the requirement to review investments regularly, trustees also need to make sure that they keep good records of the decisions reached for audit purposes.

Powers of delegation

Trustees cannot ask another to step into their shoes when it comes to important decisions about the distribution of trust assets, or their fiduciary duties; however, trustees can delegate the management of trust investments to a professional, who acts as an agent of the trustees. It is important that this appointment is made under a formal agreement and the boundaries of the investment management agreement need to be clearly defined.

It is often the case that trustees will appoint investment managers who act under a discretionary agreement. This is where the investments are reviewed and changed regularly by the investment manager, without approaching the trustees for their prior approval. This type of arrangement can reduce the onus on trustees to respond to recommendations made by the investment manager, and ensure that the recommended changes are made in a timely manner.

FAS Trustee Service

The FAS Trustee Service aims to provide trustees with a comprehensive advice and review service, which enables trustees to meet their obligations under the Trustee Act.

When we first meet with trustees, we discuss the trust deed in detail and look at the important considerations that the trustees need to take into account. When devising an appropriate investment strategy, we can look at a range of options open to the trustees, and provide independent advice on the asset allocation together with other considerations, such as the amount of funds trustees should retain as cash. We also can provide advice on the most tax-efficient solution, based on the precise circumstances of the trust.

Our comprehensive review service provides trustees with peace of mind, as a thorough review of the trust investments is carried out at pre-determined intervals. We meet with trustees to discuss the investment performance, and other factors relevant to the trust, which can assist trustees in their decision making. We follow-up each meeting with a detailed written report, helping trustees in their compliance with the Trustee Act.

If you are a trustee of a new trust, speak to one of our experienced advisers about the FAS Trustee Service. Likewise, if you are a trustee of an existing trust, and haven’t reviewed the trust investments for some time, then contact us to carry out an independent review of the existing arrangements.

Going big in Japan?

By | Investments

For many years, Japan has been considered as “tomorrow’s story”, where there is much promise, but returns disappoint. That is until this year, where the Japanese Equities market has shown considerable strength. There is good evidence to support further outperformance; however, investors would be well advised to look to the past to understand why Japanese markets have struggled over an extended period, and the steps that policy makers need to take to avoid treading a similar path in the future.

Learning from history

The Japanese stock market has endured over 30 years of underperformance, following a significant economic bubble that formed in the late 1980s. At the time, Japan was growing more rapidly than many Western economies, and spurred on by lax monetary policy and growing investor appetite,  the Nikkei 225 – the most widely reported stock index in Japan – increased from an index value of 13,000 in 1985 to reach a high of 38,915 in December 1989. Across the board, asset prices rose, with the bubble spreading to other asset classes, such as real estate, where values of stocks and property reached overly optimistic levels of valuation.

Asset bubbles tend to end in a disorderly manner, and following the boom, the Nikkei 225 fell heavily in the early 1990’s. Following rapid acceleration during the previous decade, the Japanese economy moved into an extended period of low growth, due to the lingering effects of the asset bubble. The Bank of Japan moved to reduce interest rates to near zero, a level at which rates have broadly stayed ever since, in an attempt to reignite economic growth.

Economics and demographics

One of the reasons why Japan’s economic performance has been an outlier, when compared to other Western economies, are the demographics of the Japanese society. Population levels in Japan are in decline, and the World Economic Forum reports that more than 1 in 10 people in Japan is aged over 80. This has helped keep a lid on domestic consumer demand and there has been a tendency for the population to save, and not spend, despite receiving little in the way of interest. As the population ages, those in working age could see wages increase, leaving consumers with more money in their pockets to spend.

Deflation has been a constant threat that the Bank of Japan have had to deal with. Elevated inflation around the World has been seen as an enemy over the last two years, and whilst high levels of inflation generally harm economic prospects, extended periods of zero inflation, or deflation, have a similar negative effect.

The last year has, however, seen a change in fortune for the Japanese economy. Partly due to the global effects of the pandemic, Japan has seen the first significant bout of inflation for decades, with inflation rising from close to zero in early 2022 to reach 4.3% in January of this year. Whilst inflation has now moderated to stand at 3% in September, the return of meaningful inflation is welcome news and may see domestic demand increase and consumer confidence grow.

Regulatory reform

In addition to the welcome return of modest levels of inflation, Japan is embarking on a number of initiatives to boost investor demand. Traditionally, Japanese companies have been keen to hold large amounts of cash on their balance sheets, and regulators have announced measures to encourage these companies to return funds to shareholders, in the form of increased dividends or share buybacks. There have also been announcements improving the tax breaks offered to encourage Japanese households to move away from traditional cash savings and invest in their economy through share ownership.

Valuations are attractive

When using recognised metrics, Japanese Equities appear to be attractively valued when compared to most other global markets. This may well see a spark in overseas buyer interest, after many years where investors have been reluctant to hold significant allocations to Japan. Indeed, Wall Street veteran Warren Buffett’s announcement that he intends to increase allocations to Japan in April was seen by some as an endorsement of the value in Japanese Equities.

Artificial Intelligence and advanced manufacturing have been drivers of global markets over the last 12 months, and Japan is well placed to benefit from the quest to achieve further automation of human tasks, given the nation’s strong history in areas such as robotics. Japan also has a number of companies who provide solutions that can meet demand for a more energy-efficient and greener future, such as Toyota and Honda.

The importance of diversification

There are several reasons that support the view that Japanese Equities look attractive; however, risks do remain, and whilst the regulatory reforms may prove helpful, there is still significant pressure on central bankers to steer a successful course as inflation slows around the World. This is why we recommend allocations to Japan are held as part of a diversified investment portfolio, which is an important method of controlling investment risk. Allocating funds to different regions, where performance does not necessarily correlate, and to different asset classes – such as Government and Corporate Bonds and Alternative Investments – can help reduce overall portfolio volatility.

Speak to one of our experienced financial planners to discuss the asset allocation of your portfolio.

The role of a trustee

By | Trusts

Trusts can be very useful vehicles that can help manage assets. Unfortunately, many people find trusts confusing and daunting, and acting as a trustee carries significant levels of responsibility.

What is a trust?

In simple terms, a trust is an arrangement where assets are held and managed by an individual or individuals (known as trustees) on behalf of another individual or individuals (known as beneficiaries).

Trusts can be created for many different reasons and to suit different purposes. Many trusts are created in a will, whereby the will instructs the trustees to look after funds for another person or group of people. Some trusts are created by an individual when they are alive, with a view to passing on assets to help reduce tax. Other trusts are established when an individual is incapacitated or too young to look after the funds themselves.

The role of a trustee

Whatever the trust arrangement that has been established, each trust needs to have at least one trustee (although it is desirable to have at least two). The trustees have legal responsibility for the funds held in trust, and have a duty to manage the assets held in trust and ensure that the trust meets its purpose and objectives.

Trustees owe a fiduciary duty to the beneficiaries, to act honestly, in good faith and with loyalty. Every decision made by a trustee needs to be made in the best interests of the beneficiaries. Trustees also need to act unanimously when reaching decisions in relation to the trust assets.

A trustee may be appointed in a will, and it is normally the case that the executors of the will automatically become trustees of any trusts created by the will. When a trust is created during an individual’s lifetime, the person creating the trust (known as the “settlor”) will need to choose the trustees who will carry out the role. Many opt to appoint family members or friends to act as trustees. This may prove beneficial as the family member or friend may well have good knowledge of the family’s circumstances; however, the individual taking up the role may not have any experience of the legal obligations placed on them, or the time that will be taken in fulfilling their duties.

An alternative to appointing a family member or friend is to appoint a professional trustee, such as a Solicitor. By appointing a professional trustee, this will ensure that an impartial, experienced individual is handling the decisions on behalf of the settlor.

Getting guidance on acting as trustee

For those who are appointed as a trustee in a will, or an individual appointed as trustee of a lifetime settlement, it is important to fully understand the purpose of the trust and seek guidance on the specific requirements, in particular in relation to assets held by the trust. These will be contained in the will (in the case of a trust created on death) or in the trust deed for a lifetime trust. This will set out the specific instructions that the trustees must follow and can cover a number of aspects, from how monies are to be held, the investment powers that the trustees have, and when funds should be paid to beneficiaries. It can also provide directions as to how income generated by assets held in the trust is to be dealt with. When a trust contains residential property, trustees may have further duties to comply with, such as ensuring that the property is adequately insured, and maintaining and repairing the property.

Trust investment powers

Most trusts provide the trustees with wide investment powers, which leaves the trustees with a decision to reach when deciding how trust funds are invested. Under the Trustee Act, trustees have a duty to obtain proper advice before making a decision, unless the trustees reach the conclusion that there are exceptional circumstances where advice is not needed. This could, for example, be where the amount of money left in trust is considered to be too small to warrant advice; however, this judgement call needs to be made by the trustees’ themselves.

FAS Trustee Service

At FAS, we have considerable experience in providing independent investment planning and advice to Trustees, through our Trustee Service.

We appreciate that the precise requirements of each trust will be different, and we therefore initially take the time to fully review the trust documentation to understand the terms of the trust and highlight the important considerations. We can manage Trust investments on an advisory or discretionary managed basis, with all investment decisions made by our experienced in-house Investment Committee. The majority of trustees choose our discretionary managed service, as this ensures that the trust investment portfolio is reviewed and rebalanced at least four times a year. This also helps reduce the amount of administration involved when making changes to the trust portfolio.

Given that the Trustee Act requires trustees to review a trust regularly, we carry out an in-depth review at pre-determined intervals. This comprehensive review covers the investment performance, matters relating to the trust and ensures that the trust portfolio can readily adapt to any change in circumstance. These regular reviews, and follow-up reports, can also assist the trustees in their audit trail to demonstrate their compliance with the requirements of the Trustee Act.

If you have been appointed as a trustee, or wish to review an existing trust, speak to one of our experienced advisers.

The quest for real income

By | Investments, Savings

Base interest rates have increased sharply over the last 18 months, as Central Banks aim to tackle high levels of inflation. As a result, interest rates on cash deposits have increased and those who look to produce an income from savings and investments can now generate relatively healthy levels of interest from deposit accounts.

On the face of it, cash is a risk-free investment, as the initial cash balance deposited does not fluctuate in value; however, the hidden risk in holding cash is the eroding impact of inflation. Let’s look at a typical savings account that is paying 4% annual interest before tax, which was opened one year ago. At face value, holding a deposit in this account will have earned 4% return and you will still hold your capital value. The hidden risk is that the real value of the cash deposited – i.e. adjusted for inflation – will have fallen. At the time of writing, the rate of UK inflation over the last 12 months has been 6.7%, which means that the amount deposited will be worth 2.7% less in real terms than when the account was opened. There are other risks of cash too, as the highest paying accounts restrict access to your money, and attention needs to be paid to the limits afforded by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme.

As we move into 2024, we expect interest rates to fall as inflationary pressure eases further, and the eye-catching rates on offer now may be a distant memory in twelve months’ time. This leaves investors who are holding cash needing to find another home as a way of generating income. This is where Equity Income investments have a real advantage over time, and as part of a diversified portfolio, can look to generate an attractive and rising income yield.

Look to dividend income

Part of the return from holding Equities are the regular distributions of excess profits, in the form of dividends. Most mature companies declare dividends to shareholders at regular intervals, and a company that enjoys a strong performance may well look to increase its’ dividend payments over time, which could potentially offset the effects of inflation.

There are a number of global stocks that have a track record of increasing dividends year on year, with the likes of Coca- Cola, IBM and Johnson and Johnson being prime examples of US listed global companies who have consistently raised their dividends each year for the last 25 consecutive years. The UK also has a smaller list of companies who have consistently raised their dividends, such as British American Tobacco and Diageo.

Dividend income is only one part of the potential return that can be achieved from holding Equities, as holding company shares can also offer scope for capital gains over time. Whilst Equities will introduce short-term volatility – which is not a feature of cash accounts – the long-term track record of returns generated by Equities markets highlights the capacity for Equities to significantly outperform returns achieved from cash deposits.

Spreading the risk

Dividends are, however, not guaranteed, and by holding individual Equities you introduce stock-specific risk. Changes in the fortunes of the company in which shares are held can not only impact the share price, but also the potential for dividend growth. Indeed, a company that begins to struggle may look to cut its’ dividends, or cancel it altogether.

As a way of mitigating this risk, we would suggest that holding Equity Income funds is a more appropriate way of gaining access to companies that pay an attractive dividend stream. This can help avoid the potential for issues with one particular company or sector having too great an impact on the overall fund value. Whilst there are a limited number of passive investments that specifically target stocks with increasing dividends, the majority of Equity Income funds are actively managed. This is where a manager or management team will look to select positions and build the portfolio, with a view to holding companies that offer an attractive and increasing dividend yield, and good prospects for capital growth over the longer term.

Equity Income funds cover most geographic areas of the World, providing access to dividend producing companies from the UK, US, Europe and Far East. There is also a wide range of Global Equity Income funds, where the fund manager can select the most appropriate positions from anywhere in the World.

As the performance of an actively-managed Equity Income fund relies on the skill of the manager, it is important to select the right fund – or blend of funds – to seek out the best performance. The level of income, and overall return, achieved from within the Global Equity Income sector can vary significantly from the best to worst performance over time, and this is where careful analysis of the fund, portfolio strategy and management style are crucial. The FAS Investment Committee regularly meets with leading fund managers from all sectors, including those who manage Equity Income funds. These regular meetings strengthen our quantitative approach to fund selection, so that we can truly understand the methods and rationale behind the portfolio selection process.

Equities as part of a diversified portfolio

It is important to point out that Equity Income funds are one of a range of different options for those seeking an income from their savings or investments. Cash deposits absolutely have a place in most sensible financial plans; however, the amount held in cash needs to be considered carefully, as the hidden eroding impact of inflation over time can easily eat into the real value of deposits.

Speak to one of our experienced advisers to discuss the options to generate an income.

pebbles at a beach

How A Financial Planner Can Help During Divorce

By | Divorce

Divorce is one of the most emotional experiences a person can go through and dealing with the financial implications of this can be one of the most daunting parts of it.

Most people use a solicitor to work through the legal aspects of their divorce but a Financial Planner can really help if your dissolution or financial situation is fairly complex. Needless to say, the financial decisions you make at this time will impact the rest of your life so its important to get the right type of advice at the outset. Handling things on your own can cause you to overlook things, but the appointment of an experienced Financial Planner means that you will be able to explore and be advised on all of the financial options available to you.

In this article, we present some of the key financial aspects of divorce that you need to think about and suggest some common mistakes to avoid.

Immediate Financial Aspects of Divorce to Consider

Naturally after a separation, the immediate financial concern is figuring out how to stay afloat. This is a very unpleasant time, as you go into survival mode. Can you afford to pay your bills, and will you be able to avoid falling into debt with some careful budgeting?

Your prime focus will be the need to provide financial stability for yourself and any dependents you are responsible for. Avoid making any drastic banking decisions such as switching to another provider, especially if you have not agreed this with your former partner.

Money is often tight after a separation, and it’s important that you do not fall into debt. Moreover, it’s crucial that you protect yourself as much as possible from the effects of your former partner falling into debt. As you will still be legally married at this point, this debt certainly will affect you.

If your spouse is the sole name on the mortgage for the family home, then you might want to consider registering a Notice or Restriction. You have a legal right to live there, and this helps in preventing your spouse from taking the unilateral decision to remortgage or sell the home.

Considering the Family Home

One of the trickiest aspects of any divorce is figuring out what to do with the marital home.

It might be in your children’s interests and in your interests, for one of the adults to remain living in the property. However, this might actually be a hindrance to you in terms of moving on with your life.

You also need to consider whether keeping the family home is the most sensible financial decision. Depending on your circumstances, it might make sense to stay put. In many cases, however, the more rational option is to move somewhere more affordable.

You will be faced with monumental, highly-emotional decisions. However, in our experience, we can help clients to bring a lot of clarity to this difficult situation. Indeed, many clients have contacted FAS after their marriage dissolution, thanking us for raising the question about the family home and for the guidance we have been able to provide and in helping them towards making a decision they might not have had the strength to carry out alone.

Other Important Areas of Divorce Planning

You are most likely to have marital assets other than your home which you will need to plan accordingly after a separation.

This is a key time for you to review your assets thoroughly with the help of an experienced Financial Planner. At FAS, we can help you establish what your assets actually are, where they are located and whether these are still appropriate for you, given your dramatic change in circumstances.

For instance, some common questions our Financial Planners present to clients include:

  • Has your attitude to investment risk changed since change in circumstances?
  • Is it now appropriate or sensible to keep your Buy-to-Let property?
  • Do you need assistance with any existing pension arrangements or Pension Sharing Orders?

Pensions may or may not need to be divided following your Divorce. It depends on your particular situation. In light of this, working with a suitably qualified Financial Planner can help you look at how this affects your own retirement planning.

Financial Mistakes to Avoid During Divorce

 

Focusing on the home and neglecting other areas.

Many people become highly attached to the family home during Divorce, especially where children are involved.

This can often lead to many taking over the mortgage borrowing during a divorce settlement in order to keep the family home but at the expense of losing a proportion of their spouse’s pension. In most cases, it is better to sell the marital home, buy something smaller, and take a slice of the former partner’s pension. Of course, this isn’t the right choice for everyone, which is why seeking the right guidance is essential.

 

Accepting an equal pension split

Whilst equally splitting your partner’s pension provision might seem the fairest course of action, you should carefully consider this option before agreeing to it. This will not necessarily result in an equal level of income in retirement. Quite often, it is better to push for an equal income share, rather than a simple 50:50 split of the capital so discussing options with a Financial Planner makes sense.

 

Failing to check valuations

This is where our Financial Planners often provide the most value during a client’s Divorce. Both spouses are legally required to disclose all their assets during Divorce, including businesses and pensions. However, these two areas are quite complex and it is possible to conceal actual values. A Financial Planner who is experienced in this field will be able to help you obtain the relevant documents you need in order to value these assets, ensuring you get a fairer deal in the final settlement.