FAS

Perhaps the single most important factor that determines the success of a chosen investment strategy is how risk and reward are balanced. Naturally, investors are always keen to maximise returns where possible, but it is important to bear in mind the level of risk that is being taken in trying to achieve an investment goal.

One of the key building blocks of any successful portfolio strategy, and an effective way of reducing portfolio risk, is to add different types of investments and blend them together, so that a diversified portfolio is created. Holding a diversified portfolio can help reduce risk, as different asset types tend to behave differently. This can help smooth returns in periods when markets are volatile, and avoid being over-exposed to one particular investment.

Diversification can be achieved in a number of ways, and a good starting point is to consider the allocation given to each different type of asset in the portfolio. Whilst many people will hold shares in their portfolio, adding government bonds, property, alternative investments and cash to the mix will help diversify returns, as each of these asset classes reacts differently to changes in the economic landscape.

Look further afield for returns

Whilst investing in different asset classes can lay the foundations, further diversification can be achieved by broadening your horizons to consider global investments. We see far too many portfolios managed by other fund managers, or by individuals who self-select investments, that are heavily weighted towards UK shares. Whilst the FTSE100 index of leading shares can, perhaps, be viewed as a global index (as company profits are often derived globally) many mid-sized and smaller UK companies have a domestic focus, and therefore the fortunes of the UK economy will have a direct bearing on performance. Holding a UK focused portfolio, for example, may well have led to consistent underperformance when compared to global markets between 2016 and 2021. Only holding UK assets can also mean that is it difficult to gain exposure to specific sectors, such as Technology.

This concentrated risk can be mitigated by investing in other areas of the World. Allocating funds to other areas, such as the US, Europe, Far East and Emerging Markets can seek out investment opportunities in different geographic regions. This can reduce risk, as it is often the case that the economic prospects of developed and emerging nations can look very different at a particular point in time.

Stock specific risk

Holding individual shares also introduces additional risk, as specific factors affecting the company or companies in which you hold shares could have a significant impact on investment returns. This can effectively be reduced by investing in a collective investment fund, such as a Unit Trust. These investments hold a range of positions, so instead of investing in one, or a handful of companies, you gain exposure to a much wider range of companies across different sectors of the economy. This won’t prevent the portfolio rising and falling in value, but does limit the potential negative impact of poor performance of an individual stock on the overall performance of the portfolio.

Concentrating investments in one particular sector of the economy can also introduce risk, as difficulties faced by one company can often spread across similar companies. Take general retailers for example. If high street spending falls, due to economic contraction, then this is likely to affect most major retail stocks. In this scenario, holding a portfolio of retail shares is not going to provide adequate diversification, as the price of all shares in the sector may be adversely affected at the same time.

Review and rebalance

Whilst portfolio diversification is a proven investment theory, it does not remove the need to consider the investment strategy adopted regularly, to ensure that the investments held continue to meet your needs and objectives, and remain appropriate given the prevailing economic and market conditions. This was more true than ever last year, when the mix of high inflation and rapid interest rate hikes caused risk assets to move in a similar direction at the same time. This underlines the importance of tailoring the portfolio approach to fit the prevailing and expected conditions.

Keeping a portfolio under regular review is just as crucial as the initial construction phase and this is where an ongoing review service offered by an independent financial planner can add value, by making changes where appropriate to position the portfolio for the expected conditions. At FAS, our ongoing advice service offers a comprehensive and robust financial review at regular intervals, and part of this review looks to ensure that adequate diversification is maintained. Part of this review may lead to a rebalancing exercise, where portfolio allocations are adjusted so that the desired asset allocation is restored.

If you hold an investment portfolio that has not been regularly reviewed or wish to invest capital using an actively managed and conviction-based investment approach, then speak to one of our experienced advisers. We can provide an independent assessment of existing investment portfolios and offer tailored investment solutions on an advisory and discretionary basis.

If you would like to discuss the above in more detail, please speak to one of our Financial Planners here.

Tax treatment varies according to individual circumstances and is subject to change. The value of your investment and any income from it can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested, even taking into account the tax benefits. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investing in shares should be regarded as a long-term investment and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances. Investors do not pay any personal tax on income or gains, but ISAs may pay unrecoverable tax on income from stocks and shares received by the ISA managers. Stocks and Shares ISAs invest in corporate bonds, stocks and shares and other assets that fluctuate in value. The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate tax advice.

Technology features in almost every aspect of our daily lives, and prime examples of areas where technology has rapidly advanced over recent years includes cloud computing, e-commerce and electric vehicles. Advances in technology can bring exciting prospects for growth, and this is one of the key reasons why holding exposure to technology companies is an attractive proposition for growth-minded investors.

Increasing influence

It is impossible to ignore the influence of technology stocks on the prospects for global markets. Tech companies make up 22% of the MSCI World Index, which is an index of the largest companies across 23 developed World markets. Apple and Microsoft are the two largest quoted companies in the World, as measured by market capitalisation, with a combined market valuation of $4.8 trillion USD. Also within the top 10 companies measured by market capitalisation are Alphabet (the parent company of Google), Nvidia, Tesla and Meta (formerly Facebook).

Too big to ignore?

Major global tech giants such as Apple, Microsoft and Amazon are now a feature of our everyday lives. Anyone holding an investment portfolio, or pension fund invested in Equities, is likely to hold these global giants, and any global index tracking fund will have significant exposure. Given the sheer size of the likes of Apple and Microsoft, the prospects for global stock markets are, therefore, closely linked to the performance of a handful of tech companies. One could, therefore, argue that these stocks are simply too big to ignore.

Growth expectations

Investing in technology stocks can provide exciting prospects for growth, as they can often disrupt markets with innovation that changes the landscape. This is very different from more traditional industries, where growth can often be linked to wider performance of the economy.

Tech stocks have the potential for faster growth, as they tend to have higher margins on the products or services they offer. Valuations of tech companies can therefore be expensive compared to other sectors of the economy, as investors expect to see strong growth in the future. As a result, the valuations placed on high growth tech stocks often leave little room for disappointment.

There are examples of highly rated tech start-ups quoted on exchanges that are yet to make a profit, with the lofty valuation based on the hope of explosive future earnings growth, which may or may not occur. This is why some areas of the tech sector can carry much greater levels of investment risk than others. Technology stocks can also suffer from being in vogue briefly and then find progress much harder to maintain. A recent example of this is Peloton, the fitness equipment manufacturer, whose shares trade at a fraction of the price seen during 2020.

The prospects for technology

The Covid-19 pandemic led to a rapid take-up of tech, and the strong performance seen by leading tech names drove the wider market to recovery from the low point reached during the first pandemic lockdown.

2022 was, however, a period when markets’ focus shifted away from technology, and value stocks and companies whose fortunes benefit from interest rate hikes outperformed. One of the reasons for this is that tech companies often rely on borrowing to fuel their growth and as interest rates rise, it is more expensive for these companies to service their debt. As markets expect interest rates to peak later this year, and possibly fall during 2024, attention has shifted again to the tech sector, which has seen strong gains so far this year.

The need for diversification

Diversification is a key component of any successful investment strategy. Whilst it is easy to be attracted to the growth potential that technology offers, it is vital to remember that high growth investments tend to be volatile – in other words, they can amplify the ups and downs of investment markets over time.

Whilst many tech companies are priced based on explosive growth in the future, a good proportion of tech companies have gone through their rapid expansion phase, and now offer something for the value investor. This is why holding a spread of companies in a collective investment, such as a Unit Trust, can help reduce risk.

It is also important to balance exposure to technology with other sectors of the economy, such as financial stocks, energy, utilities and industrials. By allocating your portfolio across different sectors, you can look to reduce the risk of one sector underperforming, and therefore harming the portfolio value, as not all sectors move in the same direction or speed at the same time. Adding balance by investing in other asset classes, such as Bonds, Property and Cash can also further reduce risk, as their returns don’t tend to be linked to stock market returns.

It’s always best to speak to an independent financial adviser before taking any action to change an investment strategy. Our experienced advisers can evaluate an existing investment portfolio and provide expert advice on the best way to get exposure to the tech sector.

If you would like to discuss the above in more detail, please speak to one of our Financial Planners here.

The value of investments and the income they produce can fall as well as rise. You may get back less than you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investing in stocks and shares should be regarded as a long term investment and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and your financial circumstance.

Pressure on two banks in the US and Europe has increased market volatility over the last week, and led to global equity markets giving back gains made so far this year. Whilst it is disappointing to see the solid start to 2023 interrupted, we don’t believe the issues behind the bank failures are likely to lead to contagion and a repeat of 2008/9, when the banking sector as a whole faced a liquidity crisis.

A social media fuelled bank run

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which was the 16^th largest bank in the US, became the highest profile bank failure since 2008, when regulators stepped in to take over the bank and guarantee depositors on 13^th March. SVB, despite being little known outside of the tech sector, was popular with tech start-ups, and as deposits increased with the bank, SVB started buying longer dated Treasury Bonds with their capital. Following the rapid rise in US interest rates over the last 12 months, Treasury Bond yields have also risen, which has caused the price of Treasury Bonds to fall, in particular longer dated issues, which are more reactive to changes in interest rates.

Depositors became spooked, with some reports suggesting that the rapid spread of information across social media drove concerns over the bank’s stability. SVB were forced to sell the Treasury Bonds they held at a loss to the price paid, and concerns grew, with $40bn being withdrawn by savers over two days.

Unlike the Great Financial Crisis of 2008/9, where cracks could be seen appearing for some time, regulators had little warning that SVB was in need of a bailout. However, learning from the mistakes made almost 15 years ago, regulators acted quickly to reassure depositors that their funds were safe, and the Bank of England and Treasury acted with speed to rescue the UK arm of SVB, brokering a sale of assets to HSBC.

Two other smaller US banks have also ran into difficulties over recent days. Signature, who were based in New York, saw a similar run from depositors, and First Republic, who are based in San Francisco, received a $30bn cash injection from major banks including JP Morgan and Bank of America.

It remains a possibility that other small and mid-sized US banks could follow down the path of SVB, Signature and First Republic, although we feel reassured that regulators have acted swiftly to resolve the potential for contagion.

The impact of central bank policy

The demise of SVB has in part been led by the aggressive interest rate increases we have seen since the start of 2022. Central banks have been laser-focused on tackling inflation over the last year, and by hiking the central bank rate from 0.25% to 4.75% in the space of twelve months, the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates more quickly than at any point in history. In some respects the Federal Reserve were correct to focus on the inflationary pressures, as high inflation over the long term can cause serious economic damage. However, the actions taken by central banks, including the Bank of England and European Central Bank amongst others, have wider consequences in terms of financial stability.

The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 0.50% last week and we expect other central banks to nudge rates a little higher, although we do not believe significant further increases are warranted. Indeed, with inflation falling sharply – the Office for Budget Responsibility has suggested UK Consumer Price Inflation would return back to 2.9% by the end of this year – central banks run the risk of going too far, and could begin cutting rates as we move into 2024.

Credit Suisse

Away from the US, the continued woes at Swiss bank Credit Suisse has added to the negative market sentiment. Credit Suisse’s shares has been under pressure since 2021, after being hit by a number of scandals and compliance failures, although the downward stock price movement accelerated following the news of SVB. The Swiss central bank agreed to lend Credit Suisse $53bn last week to shore up their operations, following the news that the bank’s largest backer, the Saudi National Bank, wasn’t prepared to add further support.

It is important to acknowledge that Credit Suisse have been under pressure for some time, and whilst the very recent market malaise hasn’t helped Credit Suisse’s cause, there is little to link the Swiss bank’s issues to those faced by SVB and others in the US. That being said, unlike the three smaller US banks that have run into difficulties, Credit Suisse is of much greater importance to global financial stability. As a result, regulators worked to arrange a deal for the bank to be sold to another Swiss bank, UBS, which appears to have been successful in calming market fears.

Reasons to be positive

Away from the specific issues facing the banking sector, it is important to recognise that the global economy is in reasonable shape. Despite the unexpected jump in UK Consumer Price Inflation reported for February, we expect inflation rates in most Western economies to fall rapidly, and this should lead to Central Banks pausing the rate hiking cycle, and potentially performing an about face as we move into 2024. In the Budget last week, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt suggested the UK economy should avoid a technical recession this year, confounding previous negative predictions. Corporate earnings remain resilient, with US companies on average reporting better than expected results in the Q4 2022 earnings season. Finally, stress in global Bond markets has eased, as investors believe central banks will change direction in due course.

Despite the fact we have seen the useful gains made during January and February given back over the last week, we do not see the specific issues in the banking sector leading to wider contagion across global banking stocks. The underlying economic outlook is proving to be stronger than anticipated, and whilst markets are likely to be volatile in the short term, our positive view over the medium term remains intact.

Speak to one of our experienced financial planners here if you have concerns about how your portfolio is positioned in light of the news in the banking sector.

The value of investments and the income they produce can fall as well as rise. You may get back less than you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investing in stocks and shares should be regarded as a long term investment and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and your financial circumstance.