Investments

With care home costs continuing to increase, and pensions struggling to keep up, it is essential to come up with a long-term investment strategy that aims to match the cost of long-term care to reduce the risk of you – or someone you love – running out of money during retirement.

A worrying number of British pensioners are struggling to pay for care during retirement, according to recent statistics. Analysis from Age UK published in 2020 revealed that, in just one year, the number of pensioners whose assets have been effectively ‘wiped out’ due to the cost of paying care home fees has risen by more than one-third. Putting it another way, care bills are wiping out the finances of 100 people in the UK every week of the year.

Care costs are rising

Anyone who has looked into the costs of long-term care, perhaps on behalf of a parent, knows just how expensive those costs can be. According to health data provider Laing Buisson, in 2019-20, the average cost of a residential care home for an older person in the UK increased to £672 a week. Or, put another way, that’s an average annual expense of £34,944. In most instances, a person’s pension will be just a fraction of that amount.

 And, for those who are in urgent need of being placed into a nursing home – offering round-the-clock care – the costs of care are even greater. Between 2019 and 2020, the UK average nursing home cost increased by 5% to £937 a week, or £48,724 a year. The fees a person can expect to pay for nursing home care are significantly higher in London and the South East.

Will you have to pay for your own care?

While healthcare is provided free by the NHS, most of us will be required to pay some or all of the costs of our own social care in later life. Local authorities will provide financial support for people whose assets and income are below a set amount, but broadly speaking, anyone with savings or assets worth more than £23,250 can expect to pay for their own care costs. Most people hope to pay for care by using income from their pension, savings, and investments or income generated by other assets, such as the sale proceeds from their main residence, or rental properties. But it’s important to make plans that determine the most cost-effective way to pay for care, which is where we can definitely help.

Optimising capital and income to pay for care home fees

At FAS, we often talk to families looking for advice on what to do when a parent or loved one needs to go into care. The first thing we point out is that when large fixed costs are being paid every month (such as care home costs of £5,000 per month), cash in the bank usually doesn’t last very long. So, instead of thinking about relying on savings or a pension to pay for care, we usually tell families that it’s a much better idea for us to help devise an investment strategy that will help to ensure all known fixed monthly costs can be covered for as long as possible.

How can an investment strategy help with care costs?

From our perspective, we know that good financial planning can make it possible to plan for care without fully eroding a person’s capital, whilst also effectively ring-fencing the family’s future inheritance. It starts with calculating the costs of care over the longer term and identifying suitable investments that have the right risk and return objectives.

By matching liabilities with income, we are able to find and recommend investments capable of growing at a rate of return that will aim to ensure the rising costs of care continue to be met. This really emphasises the importance of investing your money with the aim of generating a meaningful return, rather than leaving it sitting idle in cash. This is particularly relevant given that care costs have a tendency to rise by more than inflation each year, which means you need the income you generate from your investments to be able to do the same.

Buying care insurance

As a last resort, another area where we might be able to help is with arranging care insurance. This insurance (also known as an ‘immediate needs annuity’ or ‘immediate care plan’) will automatically cover the cost of care fees for the rest of a person’s life, in exchange for a one-off lump sum payment. Just as with pension annuities, care insurance payments can be set to provide a flat payment monthly, or arranged to rise in line with inflation. However, these types of policies are only available to those with a restricted life expectancy.

Summary

No one should be left to worry about how to pay for a loved one’s long-term care. And, with careful planning, it should be possible to structure someone’s finances to ensure care fees can be paid for as long as required, without the money running out. If you’re in this position, talk to us. Our knowledge of this complex market means we have considerable experience of coming up with tailored care funding strategies designed to suit individual needs. The sooner you get in touch, the more peace of mind you will have.

If you are interested in discussing the above with one of our experienced financial planners at FAS, please get in touch here.

This content is for information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or financial advice.

The spectacular rise in the value of Bitcoin is prompting more investors to get involved. But as with any investment, would-be investors need to delve a bit deeper into why these assets are attracting attention, as well as understanding the significant risks involved.

After a strong performance over the second half of 2020, global investment markets have been treading water for the last couple of months. In investors’ minds, a tug of war is developing between the much-anticipated post-coronavirus economic recovery and the need for central banks worldwide to keep financial conditions loose. The fear among investors is that inflation is poised to make a big comeback, and this has resulted in the share price of many of 2020’s biggest winners, technology stocks in particular, seeing bouts of profit-taking.

At the same time, Bitcoin seems to be going from strength to strength, raising speculation that the “Bitcoin bubble” shows no sign of bursting just yet. The value of an individual Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $57,489 on 21 February (around £41,000 in sterling), but how much a Bitcoin is worth by the time you read this is anyone’s guess. Bitcoin is an incredibly volatile asset, underlined by the fact that it was valued at just $9,668 (£7,462) on the same day last year.

Why has the value of Bitcoin risen so dramatically?

After many years of being treated with distrust and disdain by the financial world, Bitcoin is becoming an accepted part of the modern world. This year, major financial institutions such as BNY Mellon and Mastercard announced they would begin integrating Bitcoin into their payment systems. The reputation of the most well-known cryptocurrency was given another almighty boost after electric car manufacturer Tesla announced it had bought $1.5 billion of Bitcoin for its corporate treasury and would accept Bitcoin as payment for its cars. These announcements helped drive up the price of a single Bitcoin to record levels, and the value of Bitcoin has remained fairly strong even while equity market values have taken a hit.

The complication of Bitcoin is that it is not just a method of payment; it is also an asset class. So, somewhat unsurprisingly, the runaway rise of Bitcoin is leading to more talk of an asset ‘bubble’, drawing comparisons to the famous tulip mania of the 17th century. As with all asset bubbles, the value of the asset reaches unrealistic, even extraordinary, levels because people think it is going to be worth more tomorrow than they were prepared to pay for it today. Once that ‘FOMO’ (fear of missing out) dries up, the value comes crashing back down.

One of the biggest challenges around Bitcoin is that it is supposed to be considered as a valid currency, one that will soon become more mainstream, rather than as purely a speculative asset class or investment. But the volatility associated with Bitcoin makes it almost impossible to use as a currency. Nobody wants to be that unfortunate person who, in 2010, spent $30 worth of Bitcoin to buy a pizza, who would have been sitting on a $350 million fortune today if he had used cash instead.

Bitcoin is a huge energy drain

One of the biggest issues is that the process of mining Bitcoins consumes vast amounts of energy. This is because blockchain technology requires a vast network of computers and, as Bitcoin gets more valuable, the sheer effort expended on creating and maintaining it – as well as the amount of energy consumed – also increases. According to research from the University of Cambridge, Bitcoin uses more electricity annually than the whole of Argentina. Bitcoin’s annual total energy consumption is somewhere between 40 and 445 annualised terawatt-hours (TWh).

By comparison, here in the UK, our total electricity consumption is a little over 300 TWh a year. This also brings into question Tesla’s decision to back Bitcoin so heavily, and so publicly, as doing so appears to fly in the face of its environmentally green credentials.

So, taken in total, Bitcoin is a mass of contradictions. It is an investment that is highly volatile, a currency that you would be very fearful of spending, it is burning up fossil fuels at a very troubling rate, and its value is only whatever the market says it is on any given day. In other words, the value of Bitcoin appears to be maintained almost purely on speculation, meaning the bubble could burst any time.

An unregulated minefield

It is crucial to bear in mind that cryptocurrency is an unregulated investment. As with all high-risk, speculative investments, it is vital that investors fully understand what they are investing in, the risks associated with investing, and any regulatory protections that apply.

For crypto-asset-related investments, consumers are unlikely to have access to the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS) or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) if something goes wrong, potentially leaving investors without recourse if an investment were to fail.

Furthermore, increased dangers of criminal activity have been associated with cryptocurrency, such as ransomware and other attacks, which appear to have increased during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Importance of diversification

When clients talk to us about Bitcoin, we always start by reminding them of the risks that we have outlined above. But it is also important to recognise that cryptocurrencies are a very new (and very volatile) asset class, and it is impossible to know where it could go from here.

Our suggestion is that if you are aware of the risks and the contradictions surrounding Bitcoin, and you still believe they are an asset that is worth holding, then only put in what you can absolutely afford to lose, bearing in mind that trends wear out and most bubbles do eventually burst.

If you are interested in discussing your investment portfolio with one of our experienced financial planners at FAS, please get in touch here.

This content is for information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or financial advice.

What is a ‘dog fund’ and what should you do if you hold one in your portfolio? We look at some of the facts behind the ‘dog fund’ label, highlight the big names in the doghouse, and explain how fund reviews can keep your investments on track.

What is a dog fund?

Every year, Bestinvest publishes its ‘Spot the Dog’ research. In the September 2020 update, the investment firm identified 150 funds officially in the doghouse, the highest number for 25 years.

To earn the notorious ‘dog’ tag, a fund must deliver a worse return than the market it invests in over three consecutive 12-month periods, and must also have underperformed that market by 5% or more over a full three-year period. The research focuses on unit trusts and open-ended investment companies (OEICs) listed in the equity sectors covered by the Investment Association.

This performance criteria is used to help identify those funds that are consistently poor performers, rather than those that have simply suffered a difficult year. It also filters out tracker funds that aim to replicate the return of a market index (minus running costs). What this means is that behind every dog fund, there’s a fund manager looking very sheepish.

What characteristics do dog funds share?

Just as with most other facets of life, there are often lots of reasons behind the disappointing performance of a dog fund. The most recent list of 150 offenders features a number of former high-flying equity funds that did really well for a few years, before crashing back down to earth. Other funds have just continued to plod along, falling further behind their peers and the returns of the market, while still charging high fees for the privilege. Sometimes, things can go horribly wrong for so-called ‘star’ fund managers and for fund management companies.

Perhaps the greatest example of spectacular dog fund fails is the story of the rise and fall of Neil Woodford. When he was at Invesco Perpetual, Woodford ran the Invesco Perpetual Income and High Income funds and was the UK’s most famous and respected fund manager. After Woodford left Invesco in 2014 to start his own fund management company, Invesco never really recovered. Its funds have earned it the unenviable reputation of having the most dog funds in the research for five years in a row.

But after striking out on his own, Neil Woodford hasn’t fared any better either – instead he has ended up ruining his reputation and his legacy. His LF Woodford Equity Income fund became a regular in dog fund tables until it was forced to suspend dealing and ultimately close down in 2019, with investors bearing the brunt of heavy losses.

Repeat offenders in the doghouse

One of the most troubling aspects of the most recent Spot the Dog report is the sheer size of the investments within these dog funds. According to Bestinvest, the 150 worst performers hold a staggering £54.4 billion in assets from long-suffering investors. And 18 of these funds manage more than £1 billion each in assets.

Which sectors feature the most dogs?

The UK Equity and Global Equity Income sectors have the highest proportion of dog funds (26% in UK Equity Income, and 25% in Global Equity Income, respectively). However, it’s only fair to point out that this poor performance has been added to by the sudden suspension of dividend payments from traditional high-dividend paying companies during the pandemic months of 2020.

Why are dog funds dangerous?

As Bestinvest noted in their most recent report, the average fund in the Investment Association UK All Companies sector posted a loss of 5.1% over its three-year period. But the worst dog fund in the same sector fell by 51%, whereas the best performer achieved a positive return of 34%. That kind of underperformance is just not acceptable, and really demonstrates why it is so important sometimes to cut your losses.

Which fund providers have the most dogs?

Keeping a watchful eye over the performance of the funds you hold is important. Not only does it ensure that you hold a healthy balance of good performers, but it can help to identify any red flags that you might want to take notice of, such as when an investment company has an unhealthy number of consistently poor performers.

As already highlighted, Invesco has become highly synonymous with the dog fund reputation – proving that old saying about “giving a dog a bad name”. Across all sectors, Invesco currently has 13 funds classed as ‘dogs’ (although two of these funds have since merged). Together, these funds have a total value of £11.4 billion – which means Invesco is responsible for managing just over one-fifth of all assets held within dog funds.

Snapping at Invesco’s heels is St James’ Place, which features eight dog funds across all sectors, with £6.9 billion invested. Fidelity has four dog funds, holding a combined total of £3.9 billion. And Schroders also deserves a dishonourable mention, with a total of ten dog funds featured for a combined value of £2.7 billion. When you think about it, this is an awful lot of money that’s failing to deliver a respectable return for investors.

Putting things into perspective

But just because a fund has made an appearance in the dog fund tables doesn’t necessarily mean it should be immediately sold. After all – as we are often quick to point out – past performance really is no guide to the future. Fund management companies could already be taking action behind the scenes to improve the performance of some of their repeat offenders, either by changing fund managers, merging underperforming funds, or redesigning the fund’s investment strategy and approach. Sometimes it’s well worth sticking with a fund while they go through this process.

But knowledge is power, and knowing whether a fund is suffering from just a short-term blip, or whether the fund management company has a lot of poorly performing funds can really help when it comes to asking the right questions and making informed investment decisions.

Talk to us for a comprehensive fund review

If you haven’t reviewed your investments for a few months, now might be a good time to come to us for a review of your holdings. We can help you to identify any poor performers, and help you to decide whether it’s worth sticking with those funds for the time being, or whether it’s time to look for better opportunities elsewhere. But it’s always worth having a discussion with us before making any investment decisions.

Dogs have many attractive qualities, loyalty being one of them. But holding onto poorly performing dog funds for too long can have a damaging impact on your long-term wealth.

If you are interested in discussing your investment portfolio with one of our experienced financial planners at FAS, please get in touch here.

This content is for information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or financial advice.

Active fund managers outshone passive equivalents during 2020. Here, we look at the pros and cons of active and passive investing and explain why a well-diversified investment portfolio should contain elements of both.

The reputation of the active fund management industry has taken a bit of a pasting in recent years, although active fund managers fought back strongly in 2020. According to research carried out by Quilter, active funds outperformed their respective markets in seven out of the ten major investment sectors, including the UK Smaller Companies and UK All Companies sectors, as well as the indices for Japan, Emerging Market Equities and Global Equities.

What are ‘active funds’?

As a quick reminder, ‘active fund management’ is when a fund manager, or a fund management team, is in control over the investment and takes responsibility for the performance of the portfolio overall. Active funds usually aim to outperform a benchmark such as the FTSE All Share Index and will build a portfolio comprising those companies it thinks are worth holding.

Active fund management is all about decision-making. We are talking about real human beings, making real-time investment assessments, and changing their portfolios accordingly. Active fund management, as the name suggests, is a full-time, 24-7 job. And it is expensive, with all those costs reflected in the charges that investors can expect to pay in management fees. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that active fund managers face heavy criticism when they fail to outperform their benchmarks. Because even with the best available fund managers, there is no guarantee that the fund itself will deliver a better return.

And what about ‘passive funds’?

As the name also suggests, a passive fund does not have a decision-maker at the helm. Instead, passive funds usually aim to match the performance of an index or a particular sector of the market. The most common types of passive funds are index trackers or exchange traded funds (ETFs). In the case of a FTSE All Share tracker, for example, the fund will hold shares in every single company listed in that index, and its performance will fall or rise in line with the entire market.

Because there are no fund manager salaries to pay, and no research or trading expenses, it means that passives are much cheaper to invest in over the long term. Furthermore, you are achieving the same level of performance as the index, which is great news when markets are in positive territory, but less welcome when markets are experiencing periods of heavy volatility.

Active managers responded well to coronavirus

That is precisely what happened in 2020. In the early weeks of the coronavirus pandemic, stock markets across the world fell dramatically, as the potential implications of extended lockdown started to be felt. But over the course of the year, it soon became clear that the pandemic would lead to some companies emerging as ‘winners’ and other less-fortunate companies would be ‘losers’. This resulted in a sharp recovery in equity markets, with tech companies doing particularly well.

Successful active managers were able to react to the stock market falls and move their portfolios away from owning those stocks less likely to do well during lockdown, and at the same time increase their investments in those companies capable of making big profits – in some instances buying them up at bargain prices. Passive funds, on the other hand, had no such opportunity. In a market sell-off, passive funds will simply follow the market lower, unable to get rid of those unfortunate ‘losers’ that are dragging overall returns down.

So, which is better?

Of course, one poor year doesn’t make passive funds a bad investment, just as one good year doesn’t necessarily mean you should only own active funds from now on. At FAS, we believe well-diversified investment portfolios should feature a blend of both active and passive funds. But it’s important to look for those funds that offer value for money.

For example, passive investments offer the potential for better returns when shares are generally moving together in the same direction. So, they can be used as a cost-effective way to gain broad investment exposure to particular markets, acting as essential long-term building blocks in a portfolio.

However, sometimes the stock-picking skills of an experienced and well-researched fund manager can give the fund a definite edge over its competitors – helping to generate valuable risk-adjusted returns. Plus, the ability for these fund managers to adapt to changing events and swiftly ‘change course’ can prove invaluable during periods of market turbulence. In these instances, additional returns achieved by the best fund managers can more than justify the fees they charge.

Conclusion

Low-cost investments might seem like a sensible choice, but good investments are usually worth paying that bit extra for. The good news is that you do not need to make a choice between active or passive funds, and we can help you to decide on the best way to capture the benefits of both within your portfolio.

If you think now might be a good time to review your investment holdings, and to take a more ‘blended’ approach, please get in touch with one of our advisers who’d be happy to discuss some investment options with you.

If you are interested in discussing your investment portfolio with one of our experienced financial planners at FAS, please get in touch here.

This content is for information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or financial advice.

With countries all over the world determined to recover from the pandemic, infrastructure looks likely to be a prominent investment theme over the next few years. We look at some of the biggest areas of infrastructure investing and assess the positives and negatives for investors.

The building of bridges, railways, and motorways are all examples of high-profile infrastructure developments, while schools, prisons, and hospitals are all just as essential to a functioning society, and the demand for infrastructure spending may well increase as a result of Coronavirus. Governments in developed markets, including the UK and the US, have promised to “build back better”, and see infrastructure projects as a way to create more jobs and boost long-term economic growth. As a result of this, we can expect more announcements of projects that move away from ‘traditional’ concepts of infrastructure, and towards next-generation projects, such as smart motorways and intercity transit, 5G base stations and renewable energy installations, and electric vehicle charging points.

Infrastructure as an investment

It’s no surprise then, that there has been growing interest from investors who see infrastructure as an excellent long-term investment opportunity. But there are other benefits too. Just like property, infrastructure is a tangible asset to hold, which makes it altogether easier to understand, and therefore easier to invest in.

It is also worth noting that the infrastructure sector has also proven to be a reliable source of investment returns. Again, the tangible nature of infrastructure means it can provide investors with a predictable and regular stream of cashflows over several years – often linked to inflation. And, because infrastructure projects are backed by government public sector spending, the project risk is usually shared.

Investments that offer a reliable repeatable cashflow are very appealing, but many investors are only starting to recognise the role that infrastructure investments could play as part of a diversified mix of portfolio investments.

Within the investment universe, infrastructure is considered as part of the ‘alternatives’ sector, sitting alongside property investment, renewable energy, bonds, debt, and specialist finance, as well as the less accessible but well-established areas of private equity and hedge funds. All of these are considered ‘alternative’, as they are expected to produce returns with very little in common with the returns available from equity investments. Because of this, a ‘diversified’ portfolio is likely to feature an allocation towards alternatives that aim to achieve returns in periods when equity markets perform less strongly.

A move away from traditional investments

Alternatives have surged in popularity as more investors (of all shapes and sizes) have grown frustrated with the old-fashioned ‘balanced’ model of investing, where the belief is that holding both higher return/higher-risk equities and lower return/lower-risk investments in bonds effectively gives investors lower volatility and smoother returns throughout the investment journey – regardless of any stock market ups and downs.

The biggest problem with that approach is that with government bond yields stuck at historic lows, bonds are offering little or no return for investors, and are therefore not really justifying their place within portfolios. So, at a time when we are all questioning the old ways of doing things, it might be time to rethink those traditional labels of ‘mainstream’ and ‘alternatives’. Infrastructure could then be viewed as overtaking bonds as an asset class capable of providing useful portfolio diversification – with little correlation to riskier equities, but capable of providing inflation-linked returns and a steady stream of positive income.

Infrastructure trends to think about

So, if you are considering investing in infrastructure, are there any specific areas worth focusing on? You might want to start with infrastructure investments that focus on renewable energy. Back in 2015, 193 countries signed up to the United Nations General Assembly’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). If governments across the globe are serious about achieving some or all of these goals, they will need to implement infrastructure spending covering areas such as solar and wind projects designed to help accelerate the transition towards a low-carbon future.

Digital infrastructure

Another fast-growing area involves digital infrastructure. If 2020 has taught us anything, it is that people have become increasingly dependent on digital access. Working remotely, shopping through e-commerce, and spending more of our leisure time at home (and in front of our computer or TV screens) has accelerated the global demand for fibre-optic networks, telecommunication towers, and data centres.

You may think that internet activity – whether that means using emails or streaming films on Netflix – is these days mostly carried out ‘in the cloud’. But data centres are the buildings used to house computer systems, servers, and storage. These data centres and exchanges rely on a largely unseen network that requires millions of miles of fibreoptic cable, cellular base stations, towers, and countless signal transmitters. Demand for data centres and associated components has increased dramatically over the last 12 months, and this demand only looks like increasing in the future.

How to invest in infrastructure

As an asset class, infrastructure used to be the preserve of big money institutional investors. But today there is a range of different investment vehicles that offer infrastructure exposure to individual UK investors, either in the form of open-ended funds or investment trusts. Investment trusts tend to own the physical assets (such as wind turbines, data centres, or toll roads), whereas open-ended funds invest in the equities of the companies that operate in these sectors. These include the major engineering and construction firms that are contracted to plan and deliver on large infrastructure projects, as well as companies that supply the tools and equipment.

As a result, we expect the number of funds – focusing on all different aspects of infrastructure – to increase from here. But as with any type of investment, it is important to understand the structure of the investment (particularly whether it is an investment trust or an open-ended investment), where it expects returns to come from, and to determine whether the risk is appropriate for the available reward. We would also argue that now infrastructure investing is becoming more fashionable, it is even more important to choose those investments managed by companies with a good track record, who manage risks appropriately, and who do not promise returns that are too good to be true.

Outlook

The coronavirus pandemic may well present an opportunity to “build back better”, and to replace old ways of living with new ones. As a result, infrastructure looks like becoming an important investment trend for years to come, and we expect it to play an increasingly prominent role within investment portfolios.

If you are interested in discussing your financial plan or investment strategy with one of our experienced financial planners at FAS, please get in touch here.

This content is for information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or financial advice.

We’ve grown accustomed to a regular diet of bad news in recent years, and how negative headlines have wreaked havoc on stock markets. But investors should feel encouraged that stock markets often bounce back far sooner than you might expect.

Anyone who expected 2021 to begin in a more positive and optimistic fashion has probably been brought crashing back down to earth after the events of the year so far. But while the world is full of worries at the moment, it’s important to remember that the investment world approaches things very differently. In fact, stock markets have a long history of recovering strongly after big shocks, which makes it even more important for investors to hold their nerve during tough times.

‘Climbing the wall of worry’

Climbing the wall of worry was an investment phrase that originated in the 1950s. It means that during periods of economic or financial shock or stress, investors will continue to trade, and stock markets will keep rising as a result. The history books tell us that global stock markets have not only managed to survive negative events but have ultimately thrived.

However, what’s noticeably different now compared to previous periods of crisis is the shorter timeframe it takes for stock markets to absorb shocks and regain their composure again. This is due, in a large part, to the determination of governments and central bankers to take significant steps to prevent a crisis from turning into a depression.

The Wall Street Crash

The ‘Great Depression’ that took place during the 1930s began with the Wall Street Crash in October 1929. Throughout the 1920s, US stock markets enjoyed rapid expansion, but this started to slow down markedly towards the end of the decade. As production began to fall back, unemployment started to rise, and prices began falling. On 29 October 1929, the Dow Jones stock market fell 12%. But the aftershocks of ‘Black Tuesday’ continued to be felt for years after. By 1933, unemployment in the US had risen to 25% of the total workforce.

The lessons learned from the Wall Street Crash – and the Great Depression that followed – remain applicable today: the best way to stave off years of economic depression and hardship for millions is to provide emergency measures designed to stimulate the economy, prevent mass unemployment, and keep things moving. Even so, despite US President Franklin Roosevelt launching the historic ‘New Deal’ stimulus measures, it took stock markets a full 25 years before they returned to their pre-crash peak.

Black Monday

The experience gained after the Wall Street Crash managed to help stock markets to recover from the ‘Black Monday’ crash that took place in October 1987. This time, a number of events – such as the slowdown of the US economy, oil price fears, and automatic selling from newly computerised trading systems – converged to create an overwhelming sense of panic among investors. Back then, using computers to conduct large scale stock market trades was a relatively new concept, and the rules that meant systems would sell stocks when they fell to specified levels created a “death spiral” of selling. By the end of the day, 22% had been wiped off the value of the Dow Jones, and stock markets across the world were also badly affected.

Even so, this time the stock market recovered very quickly, boosted by the decision taken by central banks to reduce interest rates to help keep money circulating in the financial system. Investors soon regained their appetite, and just five years later (and after some measures were introduced to prevent a repeat of the computerised selling) stock markets were rising again by around 15% per year.

The tech bubble

The next big test for investors came with the commercialisation of the Internet in the 1990s, which led to the dramatic ‘dotcom’ boom and bust at the turn of the century. Back then, investors were almost euphoric about the possibilities of internet-based companies, and the value of shares in vastly-hyped companies – most of which had never made a profit – reached ridiculous levels.

This time, central bankers had tried to intervene and rein-in excessive speculation in tech companies by raising interest rates – the US Federal Reserve raised rates three times in 1999 and twice more early in 2000. But there was little they could do to prevent the dotcom mania. In March 2000, the bubble began to burst. The Nasdaq index that lists US tech companies fell by more than 20%, and by October 2002, the Nasdaq was down 80% from its March 2000 peak. This meant that trillions of dollars in paper wealth disappeared almost overnight. It took another 13 years before the Nasdaq fully recovered to surpass its previous high point.

Global Financial Crisis

But the biggest test for investment markets, the broader impacts of which are still being felt many years later, came with the ‘Global Financial Crisis’ of 2007/2008. This time, stock market crashes became a full-blown economic crisis after the collapse (and subsequent rescue) of banks that had invested in bad loans and toxic assets – it created shockwaves throughout the world. According to the International Monetary Fund, large US and European banks lost more than one trillion dollars, forcing bailouts that would lead to economic austerity for a decade.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 fell 31% in 2008. In the following year, UK gross domestic product (GDP) shrunk to -4.2%, and the unemployment rate rose to 7.9%, before reaching an all-time high of 8.1% in 2011. Perhaps you may recall this difficult period. But while the negative effects of the Global Financial Crisis lived on for many years, investment markets recovered quickly. The Bank of England acted decisively to lower interest rates to record levels and offered previously unheard-of levels of financial support. The measures worked, and in 2009, the FTSE 100 recovered by 22%.

The COVID pandemic

A similar pattern – crisis followed by rapid recovery – has taken place since the coronavirus pandemic caused economies across the world to enter hibernation in the early months of 2020. The initial shock prompted panic selling among investors. Global equity markets fell more than 35% in March 2020 and falls continued throughout April. But investors regained their composure when it became clear that governments and central banks would act to do whatever it took to prevent another Great Depression.

Another important factor was also noticeable during the early months of the pandemic. The reality is that companies are adept at adapting and evolving, and entrepreneurship is about thriving in testing times. Investors were, therefore, able to identify those companies that would do well during lockdown, tech companies for example, and these companies performed well throughout 2020.

What should investors do?

Let’s be clear – we’re still in the middle of the global pandemic, so it’s too early to chalk this one up to experience. And while it’s important to recognise that investment markets have shown great resilience in recovering so quickly, there’s clearly a disconnect between the performance of companies and the economic hardship that so many people faced during 2020 and are still likely to face in the months – perhaps years – ahead.

But from an investment perspective, it’s encouraging for our investors to feel reassured that negative economic and life circumstances don’t necessarily lead to negative returns. As history tells us, equities have always been a volatile investment, but that definitely does not mean they are a bad investment. People often make the mistake of selling when markets fall heavily, and only start investing again when markets have rebounded. But even during times of crisis, when people have experienced dramatic falls in the value of their investments, we’ve seen time and again that those losses can be recovered within a few years, provided you stay the course. Because the longer you remain invested, the more likely you are to make a gain.

There’s no doubt that the current climate remains a difficult one for investors. But decade after decade, the market has demonstrated its ability to climb the ‘wall of worry’ and to focus on finding investments with a good chance of future success. That’s as true now as it has always been.

If you are interested in discussing your financial plan or investment strategy with one of our experienced financial planners at FAS, please get in touch here.

This content is for information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or financial advice.

After a traumatic 2020 for dividend-paying companies, when a number of traditional stalwarts were forced to cut or suspend their dividends, we look at whether we can expect a return to dividend payments in the year ahead.

Why are dividends important?

UK investors have always had a love-affair with dividend-paying companies. For example, many retirees invest in companies known for their dividend payments because they can be relied on to pay a consistent and strong level of income, year in, year out.

But it is not just the man in the street who is attracted to income-paying companies. Most pension funds own large quantities of dividend payers for the same reasons. One of the reasons the FTSE 100 index has been historically popular with investors is that its average dividend yield is usually between 4% and 4.5%. During an extended period of low interest rates, this makes dividend-paying companies very attractive within any investment portfolio.

What’s more, earning a regular income through dividend-paying companies can help you to grow the value of your investment pot significantly over the years, especially if you use the income payments to purchase additional shares – which in turn also pay out future dividends.

So, it is no surprise that investing for dividends is important to UK investors, and no coincidence that the UK has long stood out as offering a higher dividend yield (how much a company pays out compared to its stock price) than most other countries.

A difficult period for companies

Dividends are usually considered to be a good sign that a company is doing well, and has plenty of spare cash in the bank. But the UK’s reputation for dividend payments took a battering during 2020.

The coronavirus pandemic caused a global shutdown during the first few months of last year, forcing companies to take widespread, and often drastic, measures to keep operating during a period of uncertainty.

Dividends were an obvious place to start, and according to research carried out by GraniteShares, almost 500 companies listed on the FTSE 100, FTSE 250, and AIM stock markets either cut, cancelled, or suspended their dividend payments during 2020. As a result, the FTSE 100 average dividend yield for 2020 overall ended up at a significantly lower 2.98%.

Which companies were affected?

Some of the biggest dividend payers come from the oil, banking, and property sectors. Within the oil sector, after a year when travel became a non-starter for millions of people, BP cut its dividend by half after reporting a $6.7 billion loss in the second quarter of 2020, while Shell reduced its dividend by two-thirds – the first time it cut its dividend since World War Two. After the shock of 2020, and the increased pressure on oil producers to invest in the transition towards renewable energy, the prospects for a return to past dividend highs looks uncertain for now.

However, a return to normality looks more promising in those two other sectors. Companies operating within the UK banking sector – including HSBC, NatWest, Lloyds, and Barclays – stopped paying dividends in March, following recommendations from their regulator. The concern was that banks needed to keep more capital on hand in order to absorb financial losses from non-payment of loans. This concern appears to have been overstated, and following upbeat reports in the third quarter of 2020, the Bank of England has said banks are cleared to announce dividends as part of their next financial results in 2021.

Within the property sector, companies such as Land Securities and British Land cancelled their dividend pay-outs to conserve cash early during the pandemic, after heightened fears that their tenants would fail to keep up with rent repayments. But both have announced they intend to restart dividend payments in 2021.

What’s likely to happen now?

A return of companies paying dividends would be an important and positive development in 2021, and with banks and property companies expected to return to making payments soon, the signs are encouraging.

That said, expecting a return to previous levels of dividend payments seems optimistic. The coronavirus has made life difficult and even accelerated the decline of companies in certain industries – which is likely to reduce the average dividend yield in the UK market for some time to come. Most companies are likely to start paying dividends at more sensible levels to protect their business in the long run, which is no bad thing.

What should investors be thinking about?

Stocks with a good history of paying consistent and growing dividends will always be appealing to investors. But you should avoid investing for the promise of a dividend alone – it is just one of many factors to bear in mind, and companies can change their dividend policies at short notice, as seen during 2020.

If you hold some UK shares that are there solely for their dividend-paying prospects, now might be a good time to reassess their place in your portfolio, and consider some of the other investment options available to you. For example, the UK is no longer the only place to find great dividend-paying companies. You might be better off switching your investment into a fund that looks at other countries, such as the US, Japan, and the Asia-Pacific region. There are other income-generating investment options available too, so this might be a good time to refresh and refocus your portfolio.

If you are interested in discussing your investment strategy with us, please get in touch with one of our experienced financial planners here.

The value of your investment and income from it can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investing in shares should be regarded as a long-term investment and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

Now that 2020 is behind us, everyone is ready for a fresh start. We wanted to share five reasons why 2021 may well be positive for investment markets, and why now’s a good time to get your finances in the best working order.

One: The economic recovery is in sight

Repeated lockdowns during 2020 led to a sharp slowdown in economic activity and as we move into the third national lockdown, the economic uncertainty may well continue in the short term. However, with vaccines being introduced globally in 2021, we expect to see a sharp rebound in economic activity later in the year. But even if activity comes back strongly, that does not necessarily mean companies and markets will benefit. As markets tend to be forward-looking, current equity valuations already now include expectations of the ‘2021 rebound’.

Markets did surprisingly well during 2020, but much of this was due to the support offered by governments and central banks to prevent companies from going under. To make headway from here, investors will want to see that already-expected economic growth clearly translate into company profits. For us, the biggest factor that makes the equity outlook positive is central bank policy. Since government bonds should remain at historically low levels for the foreseeable future, equities have the yield advantage, which means investors will continue to favour buying stocks over bonds. Provided central bankers keep their nerve and continue to offer support (instead of withdrawing it too soon), equity markets should make forward progress, although at a slower rate than in 2020 overall.

Two: Brexit means UK businesses can finally look forward

Regardless of how you voted during the referendum back in June 2016, Brexit has become an unhealthy preoccupation over the past five years, casting a shadow over the economy and UK equity markets. Now we have finally said our goodbyes, at last, there is an end to the constant state of uncertainty that was causing so much damage to British businesses. Clarity on transition conditions will finally allow businesses to plan for the future.

Many investment analysts believe that this uncertainty has been holding British companies back and that from here, things can only get better. UK equities have been so unloved by investors in recent years that it looks hard to justify their lowly relative valuations. Even if UK growth lags behind the rest of the world, there are many good British businesses that will continue to prosper after Brexit, which could see UK stock markets do surprisingly well in 2021. That said, much will depend on the economic policies that the UK decides to pursue. The Bank of England certainly played its part during the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, by lowering interest rates and providing liquidity for markets. But Brexit means more expansionary policies will now be needed.

Three: The US election result has been well received by investors

US investors took heart that a decisive result was determined in the election and that a smooth transition of power is now likely. Whilst some would question policy decisions made by the White House of late, action taken by the US Federal Reserve has been more decisive. As well as setting short-term interest rates at zero and keeping long-term bond rates low through extensive asset purchases, the Fed also used the tools at its disposal to offer emergency funding for companies that saw most of them through the economic shutdown. Even so, the US is by no means out of the woods, so we expect the Fed will stick with a ‘lower for longer’ policy on interest rates, and continue to commit to supportive economic policies, even as growth begins to return. We consider this to be a positive for long term US economic growth, and for investment markets on the whole.

Incoming President Joe Biden will have his work cut out, especially during the early months of his presidency. But environmental policy is one area where Biden could make a real difference, repairing international relationships and accelerating some of the investment trends (around technology, commodities, and energy) that ‘green’ policies demand.

Four: China and the rest of Asia can set the pace

Asian countries in general have suffered less economic damage due to the pandemic, as highlighted by China’s early and substantial return to growth. South Korea and Taiwan also handled the spread of the virus well and have been able to keep economic activity at a level considerably above the US and Europe. It was also helpful for them that both their stock markets are heavy on technology companies that did well on a global basis during lockdown. As a result, the Asia-Pacific region looks well placed to grow strongly in 2021.

Economically speaking, the ingredients are all there for continued Chinese growth. The real difficulty lies in its political relationships with the West. China faced heavy international criticism in 2020 over alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang and the effective crushing of any democratic rule in Hong Kong. Further acts of aggression could result in sanctions from other nations, which would lead to investors being forced to pull their money out of Chinese companies. A lot will therefore depend on whether Joe Biden can form a stable working relationship with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

Elsewhere within emerging markets, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and the Indian sub-continent face a more complicated picture. In general, a global cyclical rebound with a weaker dollar should be viewed as positive conditions. But much depends on how well governments can continue to contain the spread of the virus, and whether they are able to provide fiscal support without drastically increasing their debt costs.

Five: ESG is now firmly centre stage

One of the biggest positives during 2020 has been the increase in popularity of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing. According to the Investment Association, investments made into ESG and sustainable funds quadrupled in 2020, with £7.1 billion invested in the first three quarters of the year compared with £1.9 billion last year.

As well as mounting fears around climate change, the coronavirus has also played a major role in raising awareness among investors, as well as creating a major change in corporate behaviour. Companies have had to re-assess the relationships with their customers, employees, suppliers, and the wider community, instead of just addressing the short-term needs of shareholders. Research by Bank of America Merrill Lynch shows that companies that performed well during the height of the COVID crisis demonstrated superior product, health and safety scores, as well as better workforce policy scores.

After 2020, there’s now an even stronger case to suggest sustainable investment funds offer enormous potential, not solely for the sake of ethical or environmental issues, but because of their ability to invest in companies that manage risks more effectively during times of crisis and do so while delivering more resilient returns. Doing the right thing can be (and should be) a profitable way to do business.

Now is a great time to get your finances in order

It’s understandable to feel apprehensive about what the year ahead might bring. Whatever happens over the coming months, the pandemic is likely to have a lasting impact on our lives and finances. So, now is a good time to reassess and make changes, such as ensuring your savings work harder and protecting the things that matter. One of our qualified financial planners will be able to talk through the options available to you, assess your attitude towards investment risk, and come up with a plan to help you achieve the best possible outcome. There’s really no better time to start than right now.

If you are interested in discussing your financial plan or investment strategy with us, please get in touch with one of our experienced financial planners here.

This content is for information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or financial advice.

Although 2020 has had more twists than a Stephen King novel, many of our clients have been pleasantly surprised by the performance of their investment portfolios. We look at the reasons behind such a strong year in investment terms.

In stark contrast to the negative headlines we have all grown accustomed to during 2020, it’s been very pleasing for us to be able to tell our clients that the performance of their investment portfolios has been so resilient over the last few months. The fact is that global investment portfolios – particularly cautious managed – have continued to deliver strong returns.

Of course, this good performance has not been the case throughout all of this year. Back in March, sharp stock market falls were causing widespread panic. After COVID-19 was officially recognised as a pandemic, and the impact of strict lockdowns on global trade became clear, investment markets responded by falling heavily. The suspension of all but essential activities across Asia, Europe and the US has caused investment analysts to change their outlook on the global economy from positive to extremely negative. As a result, global stock markets in March fell by more than 35% from their February highs. Even traditional ‘safe haven’ assets, like government bonds and gold, fell heavily in value. The sell-off in investment markets was then worsened by a dramatic fall in the oil price, when Saudi Arabia and Russia disagreed about oil production volumes, adding more pressure to an already nervous environment.

But the anxiety demonstrated in investment markets caused governments across the world to respond and make superlative efforts to restore confidence. They did this by introducing extremely large measures designed to inject money into economies and support business continuity. These monetary support measures gave investors the belief that widespread business bankruptcies could be avoided, and that the global economy was not really in freefall, but in temporary hibernation.

Global investment portfolios recovered well

As the year continued, although the outlook for people coping with the coronavirus lockdown was bleak, global investment markets – particularly equities – continued to climb. While large proportions of the population were worrying about their jobs, about a deepening global recession, and with no indication on when a coronavirus vaccine would be discovered, investment markets were looking almost rosy. By August, global equities had recovered all of the losses from earlier in the year and were back to a positive return for the year to date. From an investment perspective, perhaps the word that best sums it up would be ‘disconnect’.

Looking in from the outside, with a second wave of the virus looming, and with no sign of a vaccine anytime soon, that disconnect may have looked puzzling. But there was a clear logic behind it. Ultimately it was always felt that the crisis would eventually pass without totally destroying the global economy and that governments and central banks worldwide were fully committed to plugging the gap with capital in the meantime. As a result, global investors stopped being fearful and instead started to focus on identifying those companies and regions that would benefit in the short-term and once the global recovery was underway.

Technology stocks, particularly in the US, did extremely well from this renewed optimism, as investors recognised that lockdown and ‘stay at home’ orders would prove beneficial to companies with a big digital or online presence. Elsewhere, investors were looking at Emerging Markets and the Far East as the two regions where the recovery was most likely to accelerate. China in particular benefited from being the first country hit by coronavirus and the first to start opening up – backed by extensive government and central bank support.

Even the chaotic US election didn’t upset stock markets

Over the last four years, investors have largely managed to set aside concerns over the Twitter rants of President Trump and focus instead on the positive benefits of a Republican-led administration. Conventional wisdom is that markets prefer the low-tax, business-friendly policies of the Republican Party, and would prefer this over the higher taxation and tougher regulation stance of the Democrats. But even so, as the US Presidential election approached, markets were warming to the prospect of a Joe Biden victory. And, even after the chaos caused by the time it took to announce the winner, global investment markets managed to take this uncertainty in their stride. Part of this relaxed stance could be due to the belief that a Democrat President could have the impact of his taxation policies blocked by a Republican-controlled Senate, which in investors’ eyes would be the best possible outcome. Two Senate seats are still up for grabs and will be decided in January, but it is already clear that investors have – for now at least – ruled out political upheaval in the US as one of their biggest fears or likely causes of instability.

But the UK has been a disappointment

While global investment portfolios performed well, UK-focused investments found the going much tougher. There are several reasons for this. First, the UK is a service-based economy, which means that lockdown has had a particularly negative impact. Second, the UK has not led the way in terms of dealing with the coronavirus or supporting its economy – and this has meant its economic activity levels have remained lower than other major economies. And of course, the prolonged uncertainty over a Brexit deal between the UK and the European Union continued to dampen down the prospects of UK companies, and the UK as a whole.

The key question is whether businesses and consumers can survive ‘Lockdown Part 2’ long enough to rebound strongly on the back of their pent-up demand when restrictions are lifted. That relies on employment levels and incomes being maintained. On that front, Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s extension of the furlough scheme through to next year comes as much-needed relief. Some sectors – such as travel, retail and leisure companies – will feel the pain well into next year, not helped by the tightening of restrictions in the lead up to Christmas. This extension is recognition that continued support is needed to see the UK through a difficult winter, and hopefully towards growth in early 2021.

So, what can we expect in 2021?

It is impossible to predict what is going to happen but with the approval and administration of both the Pfizer and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines, there is finally light at the end of the tunnel. This, combined with the welcome EU-UK Brexit trade deal, means that governments can turn their attention to economic recovery with a degree of optimism and strive for a better future.

But overall, if 2020 has taught investors anything, it is that global investment markets are increasingly resilient and that negative headlines and market volatility does not necessarily mean long-term damage to investment portfolios. That is why we believe it’s so important to resist the temptation to sell your investments during volatile times because markets have a way of bouncing back quicker than expected.

If you are interested in discussing your financial plan or investment strategy with us, please get in touch with one of our experienced financial planners here.

This content is for information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or financial advice.

Is buy to let past its sell-by date? With the Stamp Duty holiday due to expire in April 2021, some tough questions are being asked about the longer-term outlook for the buy to let market.

Back in July 2020, the UK’s buy to let market was handed a surprise boost by the Chancellor after he announced that the newly-introduced stamp duty holiday would also apply to buy to let investors. The tax holiday meant that buy to let investors buying a £500,000 property would have the rate of stamp duty halved from £30,000 to £15,000.

In recent years, the government has been focused on first-time buyers and encouraging homeownership, and measures affecting the private rental market such as mortgage interest tax reform or changes to private residence relief and tenancy regulations have been put in place to make buy to let – and being a landlord – much more difficult and significantly less profitable. The ‘surprise’ therefore was that the stamp duty move treated first-time buyers and experienced landlords alike.  The decision to create a level playing field has proven largely successful, in terms of stabilising house prices and boosting transactions during the pandemic.

The post-COVID landscape

The buy to let sector was already facing challenges before COVID hit, particularly due to the new regulations being implemented during the current tax year. The coronavirus has simply added to the uncertainty. But as the government has continued to exert pressure on landlords down the years, many have started questioning whether the negatives of owning buy to let properties now outweigh the benefits.

It’s worth noting that the economic outlook for 2021 remains uncertain, and although the pandemic itself might begin to dissipate, the economic impacts are likely to be around for much longer. It’s no surprise that confidence among landlords is low. According to research published in October by the National Residential Landlords Association, almost two-thirds of private landlords in England and Wales expect rentals to continue to be negatively impacted by COVID-19. Despite efforts by the government to protect homeowners, landlords have been forced to confront a sudden drop in demand for rental property or to have difficult conversations with tenants who may not be in a position to make rental payments, due to redundancies and other challenges.

The supply/demand characteristics of the UK property market are also shifting, thanks to COVID-19. So many people have learned to adapt to working from home, and London, which was once considered a prime buy to let location – thanks to its high rental income and stellar capital growth – has seen a rapid exodus of business professionals who are willing to give up city life and instead find larger properties outside of the capital. Since June, the number of monthly London lettings has been down by a quarter compared to last year, according to LonRes, and London landlords have been slashing rental prices by 20% to secure new tenants.

So, what are the alternatives?

Setting aside the incentive of owning property, it’s a good idea to think about the investment returns that a buy to let traditionally offers – a reliable stream of income that should rise slowly over time, combined with long-term capital growth. The downside includes increased costs and higher taxes, lower returns as rental yields fall, an increased likelihood of renter defaults or the property being empty for longer periods, and the added hassle of managing the property.

You might want to consider whether it would be better to find alternative investments that offer reliable income and capital growth, without the other burdens. For example, you could want to steer clear of volatility, bond funds can offer a steady income with a much lower likelihood of default. If you’re after growth, you might want to think about investing in funds that focus on dividend growth, which offer a combination of rising income and capital appreciation over time. On a global basis, dividend-paying companies have done surprisingly well this year.

Has buy to let had its day?

The impending demise of the UK buy to let market has been signalled countless times before – and yet has managed to carry on regardless. After all, for most Britons, bricks and mortar will always be viewed as a ‘safe as houses’ long-term investment. But COVID-19 has created new challenges that may be the final nail in the coffin for landlords already unhappy with the obstacles they have to face.

Until it expires on March 31st 2021, the stamp duty holiday will continue to control the direction of the UK’s property market and bolster house price growth. The question is whether buy to let still looks like a solid investment thereafter. It’s just possible that 2020 may well prove to be the peak of our fascination with buy to let.

If you would like to discuss your investment opportunities please get in touch with one of our experienced financial planners here.

The value of your investment and income from it can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investing in shares should be regarded as a long-term investment and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.